Bye-bye, bye advantage estimating the competitive impact of rest differential in the National Football League

NHL betting schedule breakdown, rest edges: Jan 27 Feb. 2

To truly excel in this field, one must possess a deep understanding of statistics, probability, and game theory. Additionally, they must be able to remain calm under pressure and make quick decisions based on ever-changing circumstances. Advantage gambling can be a controversial topic when considering ethical considerations and its impact on the gambling industry. You just need to place the bets then sit back and wait for the profits to roll in. However, bluffing too often or at inappropriate times can backfire and lead to significant losses.

According to our MelBet review, it uses the same sportsbook as Megapari and Betongame, which means the betting odds are the best here. BC Game is a multi-award-winning betting app for Indian users and operates legally under a valid licence from the Anjouan gaming authority. It uses cutting-edge security measures to protect players’ personal and financial data. According to our BC Game review, players can bet on their favourite live and virtual sports games, as well as enjoy exclusive promotions, tournaments, and loyalty programs. There are well over 20 different sports, including cricket, soccer, tennis, baseball, and even horse racing, which is rare in India. While “Best” is subjective, some apps are easier to download and use than others.

Since 1990, only six teams total played 6+ games with a rest advantage in a season. Yes, betting apps are legal in India if you download and play on offshore, licensed betting apps, such as Parimatch, 10Cric and other operators listed on BettingGuide.com. You will find a wide range of betting options on various sports, including cricket, football, basketball, tennis, and more. Cricket is, of course, the main focus for Dafabet, and you can bet on a wide range of options, including the match winner, toss winner, total runs, best bowler, top batsman, and much more. The 1xBet app has one of the largest collections of sporting events and betting markets available for Indian players.

Advanced NFL Resources at Topend Sports

Our full split of games into these categories is shown in Table 1. The NFL disproportionately allocates prime time slots each season based on which teams are most likely to compete for a championship. Stronger teams receive as many as five or six prime time slots, while lesser teams may only get one or two3. As a result, assessing the impact of rest on NFL game outcomes requires accounting for team strength. Additionally, not all rest discrepancies are treated equivalently for the home and away teams; for example, roughly 60% of teams playing the week after a Monday Night Football game play at home. Thus, any estimate of rest differential also requires accounting for the home advantage.

Here, no noticeable differences appeared; by and large, the league assigned Bye advantages no differently before and after the 2011 CBA. Related, there are also implications for how the NFL sets its schedule. For several years, the league has given imbalanced Bye, Mini, and MNF allocations to certain teams each season.

Ironically, betting market numbers increased their valuation of the Bye advantage impact, from +0.39 to +0.97 points per game, in this same time frame. Boxplots showing the estimated impact of the Bye advantage on both point differential (in shaded blue) and point spread (black). Benefits are split pre and post 2011, reflecting the shift in the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement on bye week rules. Pre-2011, betting markets undervalued the Bye advantage by nearly two points per game, while post-2011, betting markets have overvalued the Bye advantage by roughly half a point. There are a handful of games under unique rest scenarios that we drop from our analysis.

Recent users are welcomed with some lucrative extras, including the ₹15,000 introductory bonus, while regular players can cash in on ongoing promotions. The app supports various payment methods, including UPI, Visa, Mastercard, and Astropay. 10Cric’s app stands out even more with features like the in-app chat. As baselines, home teams with equivalent rest in Table 2 had an average point differential of +2.69 from 2002 to 2010 and +1.83 from 2011 to 2023. Alternatively, home teams with a Bye advantage had an average point differential of +4.45 from 2002 to 2010 and +1.76 from 2011 to 2023.

Road teams will have a tough time on Wednesday, as the schedule favors four out of the five home teams. Minnesota will be well-rested, having had two days off heading into its game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, though the Leafs will still have a one-day rest advantage. On Parimatch India, you can wager on 30+ sports, choose from hundreds of unique betting markets, and play over 10,000 real-money casino games. Whether you want to bet on cricket or play the Aviator game, Parimatch has one of the largest real-money selections available for Indian players. In addition to cricket, the platform offers a nice scope of alternatives, including football and tennis, along with the ever-growing casino library. As one of the top 10 betting apps in India, it is available across multiple platforms, including IOS and Android.

  • Bayesian inference results in interpretable estimates alongside the direct calculations of these implied probabilities.
  • Meanwhile, Anaheim gains a significant edge, as the Ducks will be well-rested when they visit Seattle following the Kraken’s road game in Edmonton on Monday.
  • Wind doesn’t just lower completion rates; it reduces deep attempts, leading to fewer explosive plays.
  • Model results suggest that the Bye advantage provided a significant edge before the CBA change, but that most, if not all, of the rest benefit has since been eliminated.
  • If the time of topping up the balance after completing all the above steps exceeds 5 minutes, you must write to the bookmaker’s support via live chat or email to obtain the rupees manually.
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Public money is heavy, so fade bad numbers and take props where you have an edge. Prime-time games also draw boosted promos from sportsbooks, which can offer positive expected value if used strategically. Defensive props (tackles, sacks) are often softer in these isolated games because public action tilts toward overs on QBs and WRs.

Regular Season Phases

Meanwhile, three teams play no more than one game with a rest advantage (Titans, Colts, Raiders). Sum up the individual game blocks, and you get the net rest edge for the season. A team with just four blocks total means they have “even” rest with their opponent in their other 13 games, thus no edge or deficit. As we’ve seen with previous seasons, rest edges can be a massive benefit to one team or the other.

Players, with a week off, travel or spend time outside the team facility with their families. First, our MNF advantage refers to games in which (i) there’s at least a 1 day rest differential between the two teams and (ii) the disadvantaged team is playing on 6 days rest or less. Usually, the MNF advantage refers to a Sunday game, where one team played the prior Sunday and the other played the prior Monday. Additionally, there other are games where this MNF definition is met, including Saturday to Saturday vs. Sunday to Saturday matchups. MelBet is one of the best betting apps with niche promotions such as Aviator free bets. With its valid licence from the Curaçao Gaming Authority, the MelBet app is a legal platform that provides online betting on various sports and games.

Defense and weather combine into one of the most reliable playoff betting signals you’ll find. If you like a sleeper team, grab their division odds in August before the public catches up. Later in the year, when playoff paths are clearer, hedging is smarter than guessing.

These are very common props to see when NFL football betting before kickoff. Live betting (also known as in-game betting) is becoming a popular option among sports bettors. Many bettors enjoy the quicker pace and ability to wager on unique aspects of the game as they develop in real-time. The app stands out from the competition because it has a great library of more than 30 athletic disciplines to bet on, which includes fan favorites like football and cricket. Live betting is also at your disposal inside the app, along with exciting incentives such as Bet Buyback. Post 2011, the Bye advantage does not provide a statistically detectable benefit.

Downloading progressive web apps, or PWAs in short, is the easiest among all app formats. PWAs are usually available for both Android and iOS operating systems, and all you need to do is create an account with the betting site and add the PWA from your browser menu. For browsers, we recommend Chrome for Android and Safari for iOS when it comes to installing PWAs. Dafabet is one of the leading operators in Asia and has a fantastic Dafabet sports app tailored for customers from India. The DafaSports Mobile betting app is available on Android with APK files and on iOS as a progressive web app. 1xBet offers an extensive collection of payment methods tailored for Indian users.

Depth chart movement is the single biggest edge in August betting. In 2024, the American Gaming Association noted the NFL was the most legally wagered-on season. If you’re wagering on the 2025 NFL season, you’ll want a simple, data-first NFL betting guide that shows how to bet on NFL games without fluff. As the 2025 NFL Schedule shows, each team plays 17 games across 18 weeks (272 total).

When comparing these findings to other sports, the competitive impact of back to back games in the NBA and NHL stands https://officialpinup.com/ out as notable. If a difference of 7 and 14 days in the NFL is not significant for rest and recovery, it stands to reason that there’s some threshold—two days? —that it takes NFL bodies to recover and practice in order to reach a similar competitive performance.

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