Hold on — if you played more online during the pandemic and walked away annoyed, you’re not alone.
Here’s the thing. Many players treated volume as a cure-all: more hands, more hours, same old mistakes.
This piece gives you compact, immediately usable poker math tools — EV, pot odds, bankroll rules and quick checks — so your next revival isn’t just hope, it’s numbers-backed action.
Short wins first: learn three calculations (pot odds, required equity, and simple bankroll sizing), and you’ll change losing sessions into disciplined experiments.
Then apply a small checklist each session: table selection, bet-sizing rule, stop-loss point.
Read on for worked examples, two mini-cases, a comparison table of study tools, a quick checklist, common mistakes, and a short FAQ to get you playing smarter, not busier.
Why math mattered during the pandemic — and why it matters now
Wow — everything went online overnight. Recreational influx changed player pools and variance.
On the one hand, softer fields appeared at small stakes as casual players tried their luck.
But on the other hand, lower‑stakes fish meant you needed better discipline to convert volume into profit. In short: more hands + poor math = bigger swings, not bigger edges.
At first, many players thought simply playing more would fix losing runs. Then reality set in: variance didn’t care about intention.
So the comeback plan must be math-first: pot odds, equity, and straightforward bankroll allocation form the triage kit for any player regrouping after the pandemic.
Core poker math concepts — quick, precise
Hold on — three formulas you’ll use repeatedly: EV, pot odds, and required equity.
Expected Value (EV): EV = (Probability of win × Amount you win) − (Probability of loss × Amount you lose).
Use EV to compare actions (call vs fold, shove vs call) over the long run. If EV > 0, the action is profitable in expectation.
Pot odds and required equity: If the pot is $P and the opponent bets $B, your call costs $C (usually C = B).
Your required equity to break even = C / (P + B + C).
Example: pot $100, opponent bets $50, your call = $50 ⇒ required equity = 50 / (100 + 50 + 50) = 50 / 200 = 25%.
Fold equity (simple estimate): Fold equity ≈ chance opponent folds × pot size you win when they fold. Not a precise formula — use as a decision factor combined with EV.
Worked example — mid-street decision
Small practical case: You face a $30 bet into a $90 pot (on the turn). Call = $30. Required equity = 30 / (90+30+30) = 30/150 = 20%.
If your approximate equity vs the bettor’s range (from a quick range estimate or equity calculator) is 25%, the call is +EV. If it’s 15%, fold.
Don’t overcomplicate the range. For quick decisions, approximate with broad categorizations: made hands (top pair+), draws (OESD/flush draws), and air. Plug rough equities and act accordingly.
Bankroll management — concrete rules for cash and tournaments
Here’s the thing: the pandemic taught players about runups and runouts — but it didn’t teach them bankroll discipline.
Simple, conservative rules I use with students:
– Cash games (micro/low stakes): at least 30–50 buy‑ins.
– Mid stakes cash: 100+ buy‑ins to live tournament variance.
– MTTs: 200–300 buy‑ins for serious play; for a casual revival, treat 100 buy‑ins as the minimum experiment length.
A small example: Your buy‑in for a $1/$2 NL table is $200. Play this stake only if you have $6,000–$10,000 if you want a conservative bankroll. Adjust down if you’re hyper‑selective about tables and sessions, but be realistic about variance.
Tools and approaches — comparison table
| Tool / Approach | Best for | Speed of insight | Cost & setup |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity calculators (e.g., simple web equity tool) | On-the-fly range checks | Fast (seconds) | Free / low |
| Hand trackers (database review) | Long-term leak finding | Medium — requires review time | Paid / setup time |
| Solvers (GTO study) | Advanced strategy + exploitable deviations | Slow (learning curve) | Paid / high CPU |
| Session checklists + stop-loss | Behavioural control, tilt prevention | Immediate | Free |
Before you dive into heavy study, pick one or two tools: an equity calculator for quick checks and a session checklist to stop tilt. The table above helps prioritise.
Middle-third practical recommendation
To stretch your sessions without inflating risk, practise on demo modes and small‑stake tables where possible, and use platforms that accept crypto or fast e-wallets to test cashflow and withdrawal turnarounds. For casual practice, some crypto-friendly sites with extensive game libraries and demo options can be useful for rebuilding discipline; an example of a platform offering those features is oshicasino official site, which lets you test session routines and bankroll rules on a low-cost scale before committing to higher stakes.
Mini-case studies — pandemic lessons applied
Case 1 — The Volume Trap: Sam played 10–12 hours nightly during lockdown, convinced volume would iron out losing sessions. Instead, she burnt through bankroll due to poor table selection and no stop-loss. Revision: Sam cut sessions to 3–4 hours, logged every session, and applied the pot‑odds/required‑equity check on marginal calls. Within 60 sessions she reduced her breakeven cost and regained confidence.
Case 2 — The Quiet Revival: Marcus used demo and $0.25/0.50 tables to rebuild discipline. He tracked only three metrics per session: BB/100 estimate, biggest losing streak, and adherence to a 3% bankroll stop-loss. By treating sessions as experiments, he identified a consistent leak (overcalling river bets) and fixed it with the simple required-equity rule above.
Quick Checklist — session essentials
- Pre-session: Bankroll check (do not play if under your buy-in rule).
- Table selection: Sit where the average win rate is worse than yours (i.e., more recreational players).
- Decision rule: If required equity > estimated equity — fold; else consider calling/raising.
- Session cap: Time limit + stop-loss percentage (e.g., 3–5% of bankroll per session).
- Post-session: Log EV estimates and one lesson learned.
Common mistakes and how to avoid them
- Chasing variance with larger stakes — fix: enforce strict bankroll steps and only move up after 10–20 buy‑ins of sample + positive ROI trend.
- Ignoring pot odds on live calls — fix: practice the 3-second pot odds mental check; write the formula on a sticky note until it becomes reflexive.
- Studying without practical application — fix: pair study sessions with one table where you force applying a single concept (e.g., fold equity) that session.
- Mixing sessions with emotional states (tilt) — fix: declare pre-session emotional health; use a 5-minute breathing/timeout rule if you feel tilt building.
Mini-FAQ
How do I estimate equity quickly at the table?
Estimate equity by grouping ranges — e.g., vs a bet you put opponent on top pair or better (25–30% of hands), draws (20–25%), and air (45–55%). Use approximate known equities (flush draw ~ 35% vs one pair by river depending on streets) and compare with required equity from pot odds. Over time, these estimates become fast and reliable.
Should I focus on cash or tournaments after a pandemic slump?
Depends on risk preference. Cash gives steadier ROI per hour and clearer bankroll rules; MTTs require larger variance tolerance. If rebuilding confidence, start with cash or SNGs where sessions are predictable and results easier to analyse.
How many hands/sessions show a true edge?
Statistical significance depends on effect size. For small edges (1–2 BB/100), you need many thousands of hands. Focus on fixing big leaks first — those often double or triple your edge more quickly than tiny gains from marginal adjustments.
Simple practice drills (15–30 minutes each)
1) Pot‑odds drill: play only hands where your required equity is less than your estimated equity for 15 minutes.
2) Stop-loss conditioning: play three sessions with a hard stop-loss; if hit, record emotions and skip the next day.
3) Bankroll simulation: simulate a 300-hand run with your current winrate and variance to see worst-case drawdowns.
Wrap-up: rebuild with math and discipline, not superstition
Alright, be honest — the pandemic threw many of us off our routines. Some of that was external; a good chunk was self-inflicted via impatience and poor session rules. The fix is procedural: apply pot‑odds and required equity at the table, enforce bankroll steps, and treat every session as an experiment with logged metrics.
To be clear: no method eliminates variance. But aligning decisions with expected value and protecting your bankroll lets you survive variance and profit from edges when they appear. If you want a practical place to rehearse session discipline and test bankroll rules with low-cost options and demo play, try experimenting on a crypto-friendly, demo-capable site like the oshicasino official site as part of your controlled practice plan.
18+ only. Gambling involves risk; set limits, use self-exclusion and deposit limits if needed, and seek help if gambling causes harm (for Australian resources, see Gambler’s Help services and local support lines).
Sources
- https://www.acma.gov.au
- https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker/odds/expected-value/
- https://www.who.int/
About the Author
Alex Reid, iGaming expert. Alex has coached recreational and semi‑pro players since 2016, specialising in post‑volume recovery, bankroll counselling, and applied poker math for online players.